#BHC – Federal Financial Analytics

17 03, 2023

FedFin Assessment: Future of U.S. Bank Capital, Liquidity, Structural Regulation

Eliza Allen2023-03-17T16:50:38-04:00March 17th, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we continue our policy postmortem of SVB/SBNY and, now, so much more. Prior reports have assessed the overall political context (see Client Report RESOLVE49) and likely changes to FDIC insurance (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE118), with a forthcoming Petrou op-ed in Barron’s focusing on specific ways to reform federal deposit insurance to protect only the innocent. In this report, we look at some key regulatory changes likely as the banking agencies reevaluate the regional-bank capital, liquidity, and the IDI/BHC construct. As noted in our initial assessment and thereafter, we do not expect meaningful legislative action on the Warren, et. al. bill to repeal “tailoring” requirements, but we do expect bipartisan political pressure not just for supervisory accountability (see another forthcoming report), but also regulatory revisions.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

17 03, 2023

REFORM216

Eliza Allen2023-03-17T14:27:00-04:00March 17th, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: Future of U.S. Bank Capital, Liquidity, Structural Regulation

In this report, we continue our policy postmortem of SVB/SBNY and, now, so much more. Prior reports have assessed the overall political context (see Client Report RESOLVE49) and likely changes to FDIC insurance (see Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE118), with a forthcoming Petrou op-ed in Barron’s focusing on specific ways to reform federal deposit insurance to protect only the innocent. In this report, we look at some key regulatory changes likely as the banking agencies reevaluate the regional-bank capital, liquidity, and the IDI/BHC construct. As noted in our initial assessment and thereafter, we do not expect meaningful legislative action on the Warren, et. al. bill to repeal “tailoring” requirements, but we do expect bipartisan political pressure not just for supervisory accountability (see another forthcoming report), but also regulatory revisions. While Republicans strongly opposed tougher capital rules when Chairman Powell appeared before them just last week (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE73), we expect them now only to make token statements of concern about any changes that do not adversely affect smaller banking organizations. In addition to looking at specific regulatory rewrites, this report assesses timing, noting in particular how the pending end-game rules could serve as the vehicle for changes the agencies hope to muster quickly in order to minimize demands for structural change to their own powers.

REFORM216.pdf…

10 03, 2023

DAILY031023

Eliza Allen2023-03-10T16:57:08-05:00March 10th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

Anti-Woke Is Worse Than Woke When It Comes To Financial Distortion

A new study released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago concludes that anti-woke policies distort financial outcomes by looking at 2021 Texas law prohibiting municipalities from conducting certain businesses with financial institutions that violated the law’s anti-woke criteria.

CFPB Opens Mortgage Servicing to Regulatory Rewrite

The CFPB today published an RFI seeking the effect of TILA mortgage loan originator rules on small businesses as part of a regular ten-year review.

FedFin Assessment: SVB’s Failure And Its Aftermath

As clients will recall, we predicted Silvergate’s failure, but not its contagion risk for Silicon Valley Bank, which failed earlier this morning following the combination of a run and capital shortfall.

SVB Rumors Stoke Treasury Response

Following the sudden failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Treasury Secretary Yellen today convened the heads of the Fed, FDIC, and OCC to discuss its ramifications.

Congress Begins SVB Inquiry

In the first of a series of statements sure to come from Congress, HFSC Ranking Member Waters (D-CA) today said that she was alarmed by the collapse of SVB and that she is monitoring and convening Committee members with regulators.

Daily031023.pdf…

8 03, 2023

FedFin: Red Light For Retail CBDC

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-08T17:02:10-05:00March 8th, 2023|The Vault|

At today’s HFSC hearing, Chairman Powell modulated his hawkish stance just a bit, continuing as he long has done to refuse to take a stand on fiscal policy while advocating for rapid debt-limit action. Pressed by Republicans for CBDC updates, the chairman today was the most specific of any Fed official to date, stating that a retail CBDC would require express Congressional authorization even though this may not be the case for a wholesale-focused instrument. As yesterday (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE72), Republicans pushed hard against the Vice Chairman’s holistic-capital review, leading Mr. Powell to say that he hopes for Board consensus on both end-game rules and broader rewrites but cannot assure this will be the case despite the Board’s consensus culture….

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

8 03, 2023

FEDERALRESERVE73

Max Camateros-Mann2023-03-10T10:07:22-05:00March 8th, 2023|5- Client Report|

Red Light For Retail CBDC

At today’s HFSC hearing, Chairman Powell modulated his hawkish stance just a bit, continuing as he long has done to refuse to take a stand on fiscal policy while advocating for rapid debt-limit action. Pressed by Republicans for CBDC updates, the chairman today was the most specific of any Fed official to date, stating that a retail CBDC would require express Congressional authorization even though this may not be the case for a wholesale-focused instrument. As yesterday (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE72), Republicans pushed hard against the Vice Chairman’s holistic-capital review, leading Mr. Powell to say that he hopes for Board consensus on both end-game rules and broader rewrites but cannot assure this will be the case despite the Board’s consensus culture.

FEDERALRESERVE73.pdf…

6 03, 2023

DAILY030623

Eliza Allen2023-03-06T16:54:30-05:00March 6th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

GOP Revs Up Fight Vs. Big-Bank Capital Hikes

Firing a fusillade ahead of capital rewrites expected late this month, Senate Banking Republicans late Friday sent FRB Chairman Powell a letter arguing strongly against capital increases and laying out a strong view that the agencies are required by law to tailor key standards.

BIS Project Finds Retail-CBDC Cross-Border Benefits

In a project boosting retail CBDC, the BIS Innovation Hub today announced the results of Project Icebreaker, a cross-border retail CBDC pilot between Sweden, Norway, and Israel.

GOP Will Deploy IGs To Demand Fed, CFPB, SEC Reform

In addition to a hearing that morning with Chairman Powell, the full HFSC will call federal banking agencies on the carpet Wednesday for “wasteful” spending and other governance issues.

Dems Beg Gensler Not to Scrap Scope 3 Climate Disclosures

Responding to intense GOP opposition to the SEC’s climate disclosure proposal, fifty Congressional Democrats led by Sen. Warren (D-MA) sent a letter to SEC Chairman Gensler today urging him not to scale the proposal back, especially its Scope 3 provisions.

Treasury Wants Fast NBFI, OEF, Crypto Standards

Treasury International Affairs Under-Secretary Jay Shambaugh today outlined U.S. priorities, emphasizing not only the importance of containing Russia and countering new threats, but also quickly advancing numerous global initiatives.

Hsu Pushes To Start The End Game

Acting Comptroller Hsu today reiterated his determination to act as quickly as possible on Basel’s end-game rules, noting the interagency statement last year that this would soon be done without providing …

6 03, 2023

M030623

Eliza Allen2023-03-06T16:31:40-05:00March 6th, 2023|6- Client Memo|

Why Way-Woke Won’t Work in 2023

The fact that both the House and Senate passed a Congressional Review Act resolution overturning the Department of Labor’s ESG standards makes it clear that striking an anti-woke blow is deemed good politics by red and purple politicians. The President’s certain veto also makes it clear that a blue man sees matters quite differently, as did 204 House Democrats and 46 of their Senate colleagues. This stalemate will continue for changes to federal law, but it won’t stop Republicans from taking a lot out on financial regulators and big banks that they can’t get into the law books. Thus, anyone deemed even a bit woke-ful will get an earful.

M030623.pdf…

6 03, 2023

Karen Petrou: Why Way-Woke Won’t Work in 2023

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-06T16:31:48-05:00March 6th, 2023|The Vault|

The fact that both the House and Senate passed a Congressional Review Act resolution overturning the Department of Labor’s ESG standards makes it clear that striking an anti-woke blow is deemed good politics by red and purple politicians. The President’s certain veto also makes it clear that a blue man sees matters quite differently, as did 204 House Democrats and 46 of their Senate colleagues. This stalemate will continue for changes to federal law, but it won’t stop Republicans from taking a lot out on financial regulators and big banks that they can’t get into the law books. Thus, anyone deemed even a bit woke-ful will get an earful.

Even if all these excoriations are only rhetorical, they will prove meaningful because even federal regulators immune from the appropriations process are susceptible to political influence – as well they should be if they are not also to be unaccountable. That anti-wokeness is already making its mark is evident in many ways, most recently in the inter- agency crypto-liquidity risk statement at great pains to refute any Republican suggestion that tough new standards amount to a blanket ban on engaging in any form of legal cryptoasset activity. In essence, the new statement says, “banks can do crypto if it’s legal, but they almost surely shouldn’t do crypto because it’s way risky and we’re watching.”

To be sure, anything crypto isn’t always toxic. Another way the agencies will handle accusations that they are conducting a stealth-woke anti-crypto campaign is to make it …

3 02, 2023

DAILY020323

Eliza Allen2023-02-03T16:59:55-05:00February 3rd, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

House GOP Bill Sanctions Digital Yuan

Ahead of a major HFSC anti-China push next week, Chairman of the Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Luetkemeyer (R-MO) today introduced H.R. 804 to bar money servicing businesses from engaging in any transaction involving Chinese CBDC.

HFSC Plans Wide-Ranging China Attack

Emphasizing the priority Republicans have placed on U.S.-China policy, HFSC’s staff memo for Tuesday’s full committee hearing details numerous initiatives the panel may advance to isolate China and the Communist Party from the U.S. and global financial system.

HFSC Anti-Woke Group Targets SEC, Proxy Voting

Following his promise to go after “woke” policies during the HFSC organizational meeting, Chairman McHenry (R-NC) today announced the formation of a Republican ESG working group. It has no legislative jurisdiction and will instead combat the “far-left” influence over capital markets by addressing SEC regulatory “overreach,” reinforcing the materiality standard for disclosures, and preventing the misuse of the proxy process.

Daily020323.pdf…

30 01, 2023

DAILY013023

Eliza Allen2023-01-30T16:59:06-05:00January 30th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FDIC Sets New Comment Deadline For Advertising NPR

The FDIC today extended the comment deadline for its NPR modernizing restrictions on the agency’s official sign and logo, advertising statement, and misrepresentations of deposit insurance coverage by 45 days until April 7.

Banking Agencies Report No Material Differences in Capital, Accounting Rules

Ahead of efforts later this winter to rewrite large-bank capital standards, the banking agencies today submitted their annual report to HFSC and Senate Banking assessing the differences between the agencies’ accounting and capital standards.

HFSC Lays Out Initial Action Plan

HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) is moving forward, today announcing plans for a meeting on Wednesday to set the committees’ rules and near-term oversight priorities.

Controversial CFPB Initiatives Advance

The Federal Register today includes the CFPB’s nonbank enforcement action registry proposal as well as its circular regarding negative option marketing practices.

FHA Expands Loan-Mod Options, Incentives

The FHA today announced it will extend incentive payments to mortgage servicers that complete COVID-Recovery loss-mitigation options, also releasing several other changes to help struggling borrowers avoid foreclosures regardless of the nature of repayment hardship.

Daily013023.pdf…