#FOMC

16 05, 2022

Daily051622

2023-02-21T15:00:14-05:00May 16th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

When the Fed Goes from Whatever-It-Takes to Anything-We-Can-Think-Of
On Thursday, the Washington Post included an article on all the ways in which inflation hurts middle-income families, the acute shortage of baby formula, and the cooking-oil shortage’s cost impact in places ranging from a D.C. shop selling doughnuts to sub-Saharan Africa.  Other articles chronicled stablecoins’ instability even as stock markets wobbled precariously above going so deeply into correction that investors are not just chastened, but also cudgeled.

CFPB Warns Wayward Mortgage Servicers
The CFPB released a report today showing that only a relatively small number of homeowners – about 330,000 – are struggling with mortgage modification after forbearance ended late last year.

White House Recasts Old Housing Policy for New Political Problem
Reflecting continuing political pressure from rising costs, the White House this morning announced what it calls new programs to increase housing supply in ways it says would lower costs.  Little in the plan is new, with much of it recounting ongoing work to, for example, reduce NPL sales to investors in favor of those to owner-occupants and community groups.

CFPB Takes to Circulars to Extend, Expand Jurisdiction
Following up on his announcement (see Client Report CONSUMER40) that the CFPB plans to rewrite consumer-protection standards promulgated by other agencies, Director Chopra today took the unusual step of describing processes by which the CFPB will determine key enforcement criteria via circulars to promote enforcement consistency and fair competition.

Daily051622.pdf

16 05, 2022

m051622

2023-02-21T15:11:37-05:00May 16th, 2022|6- Client Memo|

When the Fed Goes from Whatever-It-Takes to Anything-We-Can-Think-Of

On Thursday, the Washington Post included an article on all the ways in which inflation hurts middle-income families, the acute shortage of baby formula, and the cooking-oil shortage’s cost impact in places ranging from a D.C. shop selling doughnuts to sub-Saharan Africa.  Other articles chronicled stablecoins’ instability even as stock markets wobbled precariously above going so deeply into correction that investors are not just chastened, but also cudgeled.  The same day, Chairman Powell won his second term by a wide margin even as he told Marketplace that he couldn’t promise a soft landing, didn’t mean to commit the FOMC to only fifty basis-point hikes, and knows how hard inflation hits for most households while being unsure that the Fed can do much about it.  What markets make of this muddle remains to be seen by those not too faint of heart to look.  What I know it means is that a White House under acute political pressure will ultimately do its best to transfer blame from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to 20th and Constitution at considerable cost to coherent policy.

m051622.pdf

16 05, 2022

Karen Petrou: When the Fed Goes from Whatever-It-Takes to Anything-We-Can-Think-Of

2023-02-21T15:11:51-05:00May 16th, 2022|The Vault|

On Thursday, the Washington Post included an article on all the ways in which inflation hurts middle-income families, the acute shortage of baby formula, and the cooking-oil shortage’s cost impact in places ranging from a D.C. shop selling doughnuts to sub-Saharan Africa.  Other articles chronicled stablecoins’ instability even as stock markets wobbled precariously above going so deeply into correction that investors are not just chastened, but also cudgeled.  The same day, Chairman Powell won his second term by a wide margin even as he told Marketplace that he couldn’t promise a soft landing, didn’t mean to commit the FOMC to only fifty basis-point hikes, and knows how hard inflation hits for most households while being unsure that the Fed can do much about it.  What markets make of this muddle remains to be seen by those not too faint of heart to look.  What I know it means is that a White House under acute political pressure will ultimately do its best to transfer blame from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to 20th and Constitution at considerable cost to coherent policy.

One might discount my prediction of a political reckoning for the Fed by pointing to President Biden’s stout defense of his central bank last week when he tried to show the nation how much he was doing to quell inflation.  But a careful read of Mr. Biden’s statements shows a focus more on the Fed’s independence than on its skill.  So far, Secretary Yellen has persuaded White House …

12 04, 2022

DAILY041222

2023-03-02T11:23:53-05:00April 12th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB-Dallas Targets Renewable Energy Credit Risk

Venturing farther into politically-contentious territory, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas today issued a report finding that lenders with credit exposure to commercial renewable energy projects face unique and evolving risks that may adversely affect credit performance.  It bases this conclusion on numerous risk factors such as a lack of vertical integration seen in traditionally regulated markets, underperformance relative to forecasts, counterparty and merchant risk, and transmission challenges.

CFPB Takes Promised Tough Enforcement Action

Acting promptly on his recent threat to sanction “repeat offenders,” the CFPB today went after TransUnion and a former executive for what it asserts are continuing violations of law that warrant civil money penalties, injunctive relief, and consumer compensation.  This is the first significant enforcement action filed by Director Chopra and signals that, as we forecasted, the Bureau will act quickly on his new policies.

BIS Presses CBDC’s Financial-Inclusion Upside

Continuing its advocacy for “two-tier” CBDCs (see Client Report CBDC6), the BIS today released a study arguing that financial inclusion benefits are among the most important that should lead central banks to offer a fiat digital currency.

Toomey Continues Calls for Reserve Bank Reform

Renewing his attack against Neal Kashkari, head of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member Toomey (R-PA) today also ramped up demands for structural Federal Reserve System reform.

Daily041222.pdf

16 03, 2022

DAILY031622

2023-04-03T14:41:40-04:00March 16th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

U.S. Merger Construct Clarity Delayed

The DOJ and FTC have extended the deadline for comment on the current U.S. antitrust construct.

Bureau Casts Wide, Sharp Net for Consumer-Finance Discrimination

Renewing his pledge to stamp out financial discrimination, CFPB Director Chopra today announced a new enforcement policy based on a revised examination manual.

Warren Demands Still More Antitrust Reform

Building on her campaigns against bank mergers (see FSM Report MERGER8) and more recent, broader competition concerns, Sen. Warren (D-MA) and Rep. Jones (D-NY) have introduced legislation barring large mergers in any sector and allowing the Department of Justice or FTC to break up companies without necessary resort to court order.

OCC Opens Window to AML Regtech

The OCC has finalized a rule based on its proposal allowing exemptions to SAR filing requirements for national banks and federal thrifts whose AML-compliance programs satisfy a set of criteria designed to spur regtech without undermining compliance.  The final rule clarifies a critical question by making it clear that the OCC can only grant an exemption if FinCEN concurs.

Fed-Nominee Voting Advances

Due to the Fed’s monetary-policy shift, today’s press conference after the FOMC meeting provided few insights into regulatory policy.  Chairman Powell reiterated that he would like a full Board complement but the System is functioning fine without one.

Daily031622.pdf

2 03, 2022

DAILY030222

2023-04-04T12:58:20-04:00March 2nd, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

Senate Banking Tackles Crypto Sanctions Compliance

Reflecting ongoing developments, Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) and several of his Democratic colleagues today wrote to Secretary Yellen heightening their longstanding crypto concerns to specific questions about the extent to which digital assets and exchanges are appropriately captured in AML, sanctions, and CFT regulation.  They note in particular the potential for Russia to evade sanctions in the cryptosphere, an issue we anticipated in our policy assessment (see FSM Report SANCTION16).

HFSC Powell Hearing Focuses on Monetary Policy, Geopolitical Risk

As anticipated, today’s HFSC hearing with Fed Chair Powell was almost exclusively focused on Ukraine and the decisions ahead for the FOMC at its mid-March hearing.  Mr. Powell made it clear that, while he bemoaned the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine, sanctions policy is outside the Fed’s remit and cyber-risk is being handled to the greatest extent possible.  Mr. Powell refused to comment on the Senate stalemate over pending Fed nominations.

Daily030222.pdf

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25 02, 2022

Al022822

2023-04-04T15:00:05-04:00February 25th, 2022|3- This Week|

MONETARY POLICY PLAYS SECOND FIDDLE

Given the magnitude of geopolitical developments, we expect even Congress’s acute concern about inflation to be secondary when Chairman Powell comes before HFSC and Senate Banking later this week.  To be sure, there will be a lot of talk about energy prices and the extent to which these will accelerate price increases or decelerate tightening at the next FOMC meeting. Even so, Congress has more immediate concerns, one suitable to the geopolitical situation and the other mired in Congress’s own high-priority politics.

Al022822.pdf

16 02, 2022

DAILY021622

2023-04-04T15:53:29-04:00February 16th, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

FSB Fears Crypto, Contemplates Response
The FSB today issued an in-depth report on systemic crypto risk, concluding that this could so quickly become a real threat that it could warrant preemptive intervention.  Even so, the report provides no recommendations on how best to proceed, with global regulators confining themselves to a detailed presentation on vulnerabilities and resulting risk.

CFPB Opens Regulatory Portal to All Petitioners
Taking what it says are steps to democratize its rulemaking, the CFPB today established a process via which consumers may directly petition it to commence a rulemaking, also releasing a guide explaining the submission process.

FedFin Assessment: What’s Next for the Fed
As requested, this alert updates clients on the implications of yesterday’s GOP boycott of the confirmation votes in the Senate Banking Committee for President Biden’s FRB-leadership slate.  As anticipated (see Client Report FEDERALRESERVE66), Sarah Bloom Raskin’s nomination as supervisory vice chair is proving to be particularly problematic, leading Democrats to try to attach Chairman Powell’s far more popular confirmation to the rest of the slate in hopes of forcing it through.

Daily021622.pdf

18 01, 2022

Karen Petrou: Inflation’s High Cost to Competition and Comity

2023-04-24T15:18:29-04:00January 18th, 2022|The Vault|

It’s not news that the latest inflation data are disastrous.  Even if they won’t last, as Mr. Powell again assured Congress, it sure is hard to see how the combination of pressures detailed in the inflation data lead to ta rate even close to the FOMC’s median projection for 2022 of 2.6 percent.  This means that real rates will remain negative throughout 2022 and well into 2023.  Indeed, given that the FOMC’s median projection for the near-term fed funds rate never gets above 2.1 percent, even the Fed has tacitly conceded that negative real rates may well be  prolonged absent either divine intervention or another devilishly-deep recession.  In June of last year, I predicted that U.S. inflation would not prove transitory and forecast the political impact finally understood at the highest levels of the Biden White House.  Much is also now being written about the inequality impact I described last year, but little is said about the sum total impact of these sorry facts of life on the financial system.  These may also prove anything but transitory.

The first financial-system impact of high inflation and slow growth for anything but the S&P is both political and structural.  With his back increasingly pushed to the wall by inflation’s toxic equality impact, Mr. Biden defended himself against the latest CPI numbers by arguing that many of them are due to monopolistic price controls best cured by rapid antitrust initiatives such as the one already launched against the meat industry.

Other …

8 11, 2021

Daily110821

2023-06-01T14:52:06-04:00November 8th, 2021|2- Daily Briefing|

BIS Research Survey Finds Few Structural, Policy Impediments to Fast-Acting CBDC
A new BIS paper assesses CBDC’s impact across the full spectrum of economic activity given the centrality of data, moving the research discussion beyond the “reserves for all” approach (i.e., FedAccounts) on which much public debate focuses. This work thus tackles critical privacy, competition, integrity, and stability issues largely left aside in the BIS’s recent formulation of retail-facing CBDC. Press today indicate that the French have given tentative support to a wholesale-facing CBDC even as they raise the questions this BIS paper seeks to answer.

HFSC Dems Urge LGBTQ+ Financial Guidance
Ahead of its hearing examining financial-inclusion barriers for the LGBTQ+ community, HFSC’s majority staff memo indicates the Diversity and Inclusion Subcommittee will tomorrow debate draft legislation that would require federal financial regulators to issue guidance on LGBTQ+ inclusion.

Inter-Agency Treasury-Market Rewrite Takes Shape
Ahead of a conference next month, the Intra-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance today set principles to guide further action to stabilize the U.S. Treasury marketplace.

Hsu Demands Top-Down Climate-Risk Management
Acting Comptroller Hsu today followed up last week’s announcement of near-term OCC climate-risk guidance for big banks with a set of questions he urges directors use to press senior management to action. Noting that directors should challenge any managerial confidence that climate risk is indeed being well addressed, the goal of this inquiry is climate-risk readiness by the end of next year.

Bowman Reiterates Need for Servicer Readiness, Regulation
Fed Gov. Bowman today …

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