#GOP – Page 2 – Federal Financial Analytics

6 02, 2023

Karen Petrou: It’s Game-On for End-Game Capital Regulation

Arezou Rafikian2023-02-06T10:56:45-05:00February 6th, 2023|The Vault|

Many rules determine the terms of combat in key financial markets, but none is as fundamental as bank-capital standards because every decision a bank makes first factors capital costs or benefits. These are axiomatic because, even if every other business assumption a company makes is good, a financial product or service will still prove unprofitable if capital requirements are high enough to doom returns sufficient for insatiable investors. Said by some only to be a tidy Basel III clean-up, the Basel IV “end-game” capital rules set to come in the next month or so are actually a substantive recalibration of which businesses make banks how much money compared to all the competitors empowered over the years by the happy – if highly risky – absence of like-kind requirements. It’s thus no wonder that it’s already game-on for the future of the end-game regulations.

As we’ve noted in recent client updates, Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) now chairs the HFSC subcommittee with power over both financial-institution regulation and monetary policy. Although one of his first bills in this Congress deals only with loosening capital rules for de novo banks (H.R. 758), he has made it very clear that he fears that the new big-bank capital construct will prove unduly costly and anti-competitive. Senate Banking Ranking Member Tim Scott (R-SC) said the same thing in more guarded tones when he released his priorities, making it clear that the GOP has its eyes on the new capital rules.

No coincidence, conservative critics are …

30 01, 2023

Karen Petrou: M&Ms, McHenry, and the Making of Financial Policy

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-30T11:28:41-05:00January 30th, 2023|The Vault|

It’s a sad commentary on American politics to observe, as I feel we must, that the experienced chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Patrick McHenry, has followed M&M’s “spokescandies” as a target of Tucker Carlson’s bilious, yet widely-watched, wrath. The fundamental frivolity of this contrast is self-evident, but that has yet to dampen the credibility of this combustible commentator with his super conservative acolytes. That Mr. Carlson matters so much to public discourse is deeply distressing given some of his other targets – Nancy Pelosi’s husband after a brutal attack is only one that comes immediately to mind. Unlike him and many other Carlson targets, Mr. McHenry can more than take care of himself. Still, going after him means super-conservatives will blast any Member or measure that falls short of purity on their rightward-loaded scale. Since nothing these folks like can be enacted into law, all this does is reduce the hopeful odds we cast earlier this year for constructive financial-policy legislation. Too bad – the nation could use some.

The nub of the accusation lies in his chairman’s decision to leave the word “inclusive” in the name of one of his panel’s revamped subcommittees. Clearly, the concept of inclusion has become accursed because Democrats often used it in concert with what might seem an equally innocuous word: diversity. Democrats did use diversity and inclusion demands to press for racial, gender, and sexual-orientation equity in ways that rubbed many republicans raw, but the idea of inclusion is fundamental to …

23 01, 2023

Karen Petrou: How the CFPB Plans to Rule by Registry

Eliza Allen2023-01-23T11:09:36-05:00January 23rd, 2023|The Vault|

Last week, we provided clients with an in-depth analysis of the CFPB’s latest nonbank registry as well as a hard look at its impact on mortgage securitization. Any nonbank subject to the CFPB will find its legal arsenal much depleted by the registry’s requirements, a point already well understood by opponents. Far less noticed but of still greater consequence to all consumer-finance companies is another implication of the Bureaus actions here and in another recent registry proposal: even where the CFPB has little to no regulatory authority, it will deploy its formidable ability to gain public attention to make unbearable the reputational risk of any practice it abhors.

Justice Brandeis is often quoted as saying that sunshine is the most powerful disinfectant and Director Chopra clearly plans to cast companies under a scorching sun. That is works was demonstrated by his decision to detail the ways in which he believes overdraft fees support predatory earnings at considerable cost to vulnerable consumers. That most banks charged overdraft fees in strict compliance with current rules made enforcement action at best a challenging route to reform. Rewriting the rules would have gotten the Bureau where it wanted to go, but only over at least a year of wrangling. Set out in the merciless sun by Mr. Chopra and Congressional Democrats, many banks decided that the political and reputational risk of continuing overdraft fees was just too high.

Overdraft reform thus proved easy to say and then to do. So it is …

16 05, 2022

Karen Petrou: When the Fed Goes from Whatever-It-Takes to Anything-We-Can-Think-Of

Arezou Rafikian2023-02-21T15:11:51-05:00May 16th, 2022|The Vault|

On Thursday, the Washington Post included an article on all the ways in which inflation hurts middle-income families, the acute shortage of baby formula, and the cooking-oil shortage’s cost impact in places ranging from a D.C. shop selling doughnuts to sub-Saharan Africa. Other articles chronicled stablecoins’ instability even as stock markets wobbled precariously above going so deeply into correction that investors are not just chastened, but also cudgeled. The same day, Chairman Powell won his second term by a wide margin even as he told Marketplace that he couldn’t promise a soft landing, didn’t mean to commit the FOMC to only fifty basis-point hikes, and knows how hard inflation hits for most households while being unsure that the Fed can do much about it. What markets make of this muddle remains to be seen by those not too faint of heart to look. What I know it means is that a White House under acute political pressure will ultimately do its best to transfer blame from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to 20^th and Constitution at considerable cost to coherent policy.

One might discount my prediction of a political reckoning for the Fed by pointing to President Biden’s stout defense of his central bank last week when he tried to show the nation how much he was doing to quell inflation. But a careful read of Mr. Biden’s statements shows a focus more on the Fed’s independence than on its skill. So far, Secretary Yellen has persuaded White House …

9 05, 2022

Karen Petrou: Why the Agencies Demand a CRA Speed-Read

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-01T13:24:27-05:00May 9th, 2022|The Vault|

Was the new CRA proposal worth waiting for? Advocates on all sides of this question are burrowing into the 678 pages delivered unto them by the FDIC last Thursday. We’re doing the same for an in-depth analysis we’ll make as objective as possible as quickly as possible. At first glance, there’s a lot in the proposal for all sides to like a lot. However, the haste with which the agencies are gathering comment suggests that they hear Republican hoofbeats that may well pick up speed and strength as the industry’s deep read concludes.

The fact sheet released on the proposal laid out the both-sides benefits. Banks would bet certainty combined with points for investing in much of what they now do or want to do in areas such as social welfare, environmental resilience, and deposit-taking. Consumer and community advocates were cheered by the proposal’s tougher metrics focus on demographic data designed to demand racial equity, and higher barriers to exemplary CRA ratings.

However, each side carefully hedged its bet. Bank trade associations applauded the proposal’s provisions in broad terms, celebrating an inter-agency action along with provisions bringing CRA into the 21^st century. However, none blessed the proposal in substance, doubtless because the new demographic-reporting requirements and tougher grading system already give the industry heartburn.

Conversely, community groups warned that the proposal had better not go soft on banks, especially big ones. Anticipating these concerns, CFPB Director Chopra made it clear that, while he likes a lot in …

8 02, 2022

FedFin: Partisan Impasse Suggests Small Chance for Stablecoin Statutory Change

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-05T12:06:36-04:00February 8th, 2022|The Vault|

Today’s HFSC hearing on stablecoins makes it clear that the bipartisan legislation Chairwoman Waters (D-CA) prefers is at best a long way off. Democrats generally agreed with the President’s Working Group stablecoin report (see Client Report CRYPTO21), with Under-Secretary Liang today not only describing its findings but reinforcing the need for rapid regulatory intervention in concert with substantive statutory change.