#GSIB – Federal Financial Analytics

22 03, 2023

FedFin Assessment: GSIB Rules Set For Post-CS Rewrite

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-22T16:34:58-04:00March 22nd, 2023|The Vault|

In this report, we assess the implications of recent events on two assumptions underlying current U.S. and global policy affecting GSIBs and those considered domestic SIBs: first, all are likely to be well insulated from illiquidity and/or insolvency and, when this is not the case, then orderly resolution without taxpayer bailout can be readily deployed. Credit Suisse’s failure and subsequent, subsidized acquisition is just one of the “Minsky moments” rattling regulators and other policy-makers, with the conclusions drawn from all of them surely to lead to significant reevaluation of each of these assumptions. To be sure, CS was an outlier in terms of idiosyncratic culture-and-control problems, but the Swiss regulatory and resolution system is considered reasonably robust, thus making the bank’s failure…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.

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22 03, 2023

GSIB21

Eliza Allen2023-03-22T10:52:22-04:00March 22nd, 2023|5- Client Report|

FedFin Assessment: GSIB Rules Set For Post-CS Rewrite

In this report, we assess the implications of recent events on two assumptions underlying current U.S. and global policy affecting GSIBs and those considered domestic SIBs: first, all are likely to be well insulated from illiquidity and/or insolvency and, when this is not the case, then orderly resolution without taxpayer bailout can be readily deployed. Credit Suisse’s failure and subsequent, subsidized acquisition is just one of the “Minsky moments” rattling regulators and other policy-makers, with the conclusions drawn from all of them surely to lead to significant reevaluation of each of these assumptions. To be sure, CS was an outlier in terms of idiosyncratic culture-and-control problems, but the Swiss regulatory and resolution system is considered reasonably robust, thus making the bank’s failure a global policy concern. The flood of deposits out of regional banks to the largest U.S. banks also further concentrates the sector, a result the Fed and Department of Justice will view with alarm even though they recognize that recent events are not the fault of the largest banking organizations. In this report, we assess implications for U.S. merger policy, OLA, TLAC, resolution planning, and other standards. See our Client Report RESOLVE49 for a discussion of capital and liquidity standards, Client Report DEPOSITINSURANCE118 for revisions to FDIC thresholds, and Client Report LIQUIDITY33 for run-specific policy actions.

GSIB21.pdf…

16 03, 2023

DAILY031623

Eliza Allen2023-03-16T17:11:59-04:00March 16th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FedFin Assessment: One CS Consequence – LISCC Reinstatement For All Large Foreign GSIBs

In the wake of CS’s distress, we draw client attention to a 2021 exchange sure to factor heavily in the political response.

Brown Presses For In-Depth SVB, Signature Review

As anticipated (see Client Report RESOLVE49), Senate Banking Chairman Brown (D-OH) today called on all the banking agencies and Treasury quickly to undertake a review of SVB and Signatures failures.

Warren Heaps Still More Blame On Powell

In another letter today, Sen. Warren (D-MA) once again lambasted Chair Powell for what she claimed was his direct contribution to the collapse of Signature Bank and SVB as well as a “a culture of corruption” at the Fed.

Senate GOP Blames Fed, California re SVB

Senate Banking Republicans today tweeted a series of comments citing articles going back to last year identifying SVB risk and suggesting strongly that the Fed and California state supervisors are at fault for missing clear warning signs.

Bipartisan Senators Push Better Beneficial-Ownership Data Access

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Whitehouse (D-RI) was joined by Sens. Wyden (D-OR), Warren (D-MA), Grassley (R-IA), and Rubio (R-FL) late yesterday in submitting a comment letter to FinCEN taking serious issue with its proposed implementation of the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) (see FSM Report AML135).

Senate Finance Hearing Deepens SVB Divide

At a heated Senate Finance hearing with Treasury Secretary Yellen, Members were quick to deviate from the hearing’s budget-focused agenda to address who should bear the …

9 03, 2023

GSE-030923

Eliza Allen2023-03-09T15:28:01-05:00March 9th, 2023|4- GSE Activity Report|

Now What?

As detailed in our reports earlier this week on Powell’s appearance before Senate Banking and HFSC, much was said about the pending rewrite of big-bank capital standards. As we’ve noted, this matters a lot to the comparative advantage of GSEs, nonbank mortgage players, and banks large and small. As a result, we here go in depth on what Powell said – and mostly didn’t – about what’s next on these critical standards.

GSE-030923.pdf…

21 02, 2023

Karen Petrou: FSOC’s NBFI Plans Will Cost Big Banks Dearly

Arezou Rafikian2023-02-21T11:15:33-05:00February 21st, 2023|The Vault|

Although the always-inscrutable FSOC’s read-out of its last meeting was clear only with respect to approval of prior meeting minutes, the brief mention of ongoing U.S. work to address nonbank financial intermediation (NBFI) was so tantalizing that we ventured down darkened corners of key agencies to get a read-out of our own. Two conclusions came to light: the U.S. will take tough action on limiting bank/NBFI interconnections in its pending bank capital rewrite and FSOC is fine with the SEC’s recent MMF and open-end fund proposals even if pretty much no one else is.

First to the capital rewrites and how costly they could be. In its most recent NBFI review, the FSB took sharp issue with the extent to which the U.S. has taken sufficient steps to curb the inter-connected risks to NBFIs evident even before the 2020 market collapse. We expect the banking agencies not only to issue the end-game rules discussed in my last memo, but also to make good on the U.S. promise to Basel well before the game nominally ended with the 2017 revisions.

This means new capital standards costing banks big when it comes to bank equity investments in funds and higher risk weightings for exposures to unregulated financial institutions. It also means new capital requirements absorbing “step-in” risk – i.e., the extent to which reputational risk forces banks to stand by their off-balance sheet funds, SIVs, or other instrumentalities. Two banks in fact supported affiliated funds in MMFs during the 2020 …

21 02, 2023

M022123

Eliza Allen2023-02-21T11:15:27-05:00February 21st, 2023|6- Client Memo|

FSOC’s NBFI Plans Will Cost Big Banks Dearly

Although the always-inscrutable FSOC’s read-out of its last meeting was clear only with respect to approval of prior meeting minutes, the brief mention of ongoing U.S. work to address nonbank financial intermediation (NBFI) was so tantalizing that we ventured down darkened corners of key agencies to get a read-out of our own. Two conclusions came to light: the U.S. will take tough action on limiting bank/NBFI interconnections in its pending bank capital rewrite and FSOC is fine with the SEC’s recent MMF and open-end fund proposals even if pretty much no one else is.

m022123.pdf…

30 01, 2023

DAILY013023

Eliza Allen2023-01-30T16:59:06-05:00January 30th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FDIC Sets New Comment Deadline For Advertising NPR

The FDIC today extended the comment deadline for its NPR modernizing restrictions on the agency’s official sign and logo, advertising statement, and misrepresentations of deposit insurance coverage by 45 days until April 7.

Banking Agencies Report No Material Differences in Capital, Accounting Rules

Ahead of efforts later this winter to rewrite large-bank capital standards, the banking agencies today submitted their annual report to HFSC and Senate Banking assessing the differences between the agencies’ accounting and capital standards.

HFSC Lays Out Initial Action Plan

HFSC Chairman McHenry (R-NC) is moving forward, today announcing plans for a meeting on Wednesday to set the committees’ rules and near-term oversight priorities.

Controversial CFPB Initiatives Advance

The Federal Register today includes the CFPB’s nonbank enforcement action registry proposal as well as its circular regarding negative option marketing practices.

FHA Expands Loan-Mod Options, Incentives

The FHA today announced it will extend incentive payments to mortgage servicers that complete COVID-Recovery loss-mitigation options, also releasing several other changes to help struggling borrowers avoid foreclosures regardless of the nature of repayment hardship.

Daily013023.pdf…

17 01, 2023

DAILY011723

Eliza Allen2023-01-17T17:03:48-05:00January 17th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FinCEN Opens Beneficial-Ownership Reports to Public Comment

Likely furthering its effort to garner greater public buy-in for its beneficial ownership information (BOI) standards, FinCEN is now requesting public comment on these reports.

CFPB Presses Consumers, Employees to Action

In a post today, the CFPB double-downed on its recent precedent-setting enforcement action against Wells Fargo (see Client Report CONSUMER46).

Breaking Up Won’t Be Hard to Do

In a high-impact speech today, Acting Comptroller Hsu expressly threatens that the OCC will not stop at the kind of growth restrictions imposed on Wells Fargo (see Client Report CORPGOV26) or the CFPB’s fines (see Client Report CONSUMER46) if a large bank is a repeat offender in safety-and-soundness arenas.

Fed Begins Big-Bank Physical/Transition Financial Climate Risk Analysis

The Fed today announced a two module structure for its upcoming GSIB pilot climate scenario analysis, kicking off a process to identify the data, governance, and processes banks need to manage the financial risks related to physical and transition climate events.

Daily011723.pdf…

9 01, 2023

DAILY010923

Eliza Allen2023-01-09T16:42:26-05:00January 9th, 2023|2- Daily Briefing|

FRB Staff Criticizes GSIB Climate Action Plans

A new FRB staff paper assesses GSIB climate-action plans, finding them better but still wanting with regard to risk measurement, disclosure, and management as well as the alignment of financing activities with stated net-zero targets. The paper largely depends on GSIB disclosures, likely not only leading authors to call for improvements given the well-known early stage of these releases, but also making uncertain its analysis of opaque areas such as internal policy alignment. The study notes the lack of standardization in GSIB disclosures, efforts, and terminology but does not seem to address it in reaching its conclusions.

FRB-NY Staff Find Banks Target Repurchases to Constrain Capital Distribution

Reaching no conclusions about the wisdom of the Fed’s 2020 restrictions on bank capital distributions, a new blog post from FRB-NY staff finds that changes in repurchases account for almost all of the movement in bank shareholder payout since the pandemic and that the greater volatility of repurchases relative to dividends reflects long held trends. This is because changes to repurchases are more discretionary than “highly visible” dividend changes.

Daily010923.pdf…

23 11, 2022

DAILY112322

Eliza Allen2022-11-23T12:42:48-05:00November 23rd, 2022|2- Daily Briefing|

OFAC Updates Guidance For Price-Cap Sanction Compliance

Reflecting ongoing negotiations about the level of the oil-price cap, OFAC last night provided updated guidance to banks and insurers about when transactions may violate this latest sanction. The new guidance identifies “covered services” for financing; this means a commitment for the provision or disbursement of debt, equity, or economic resources related to the maritime transport of Russian oil. However, and as before, U.S. persons are authorized to provide covered services if the Russian oil is purchased at or below the price cap.

FDIC Signals Tougher GSIB Resolution Reviews

With the FDIC signaling a tough new approach to resolution plan approval, the FRB and FDIC today announced the results of the resolution plans filed by U.S. GSIBs in July, 2021. All the banking organizations saw their plans approved except for Citigroup, which had noted shortcomings due to data quality and management concerns; the bank now has until January 31, 2023 to submit a revised plan. FDIC Acting Chairman Gruenberg noted that, going forward, the agencies will conduct more detailed reviews of internal testing results and independent capability assessments.

Daily112322.pdf…