#payment-system

5 12, 2022

Karen Petrou: Bank Canaries in the Crypto Mineshaft

Arezou Rafikian2022-12-05T16:34:33-05:00December 5th, 2022|The Vault|

Just because crypto hasn’t triggered a systemic collapse doesn’t mean that it won’t be the perpetrator of quiet banking crashes. We would do well to remember that the 2008 calamity came shortly after the collapse of small subprime-mortgage finance companies. These would have been proverbial dead canaries had anyone looked down the mineshaft. And, even as the U.S. subprime crashes formed into a single, torrential crisis, bank regulators confidently foretold no systemic impact because they comfortably believed that no bank had undue exposure to high-risk mortgages. So bank regulators still say now when it comes to crypto and let’s hope the outcome is different this time. However, bits and pieces of bank wreckage are already to be found in FTX’s rubble and may well surface as the crypto tide continues to ebb. No bank shipwrecks have emerged, but some of the wreckage has the look of a sizeable hull.

The most tantalizing bit of banking wreckage is a super-tiny Washington State bank which FTX appears to have surreptitiously acquired. As the New York Times reported, one of FTX’s affiliates last March invested more than double all the capital previously held in Farmington State Bank, doing so in a carefully-structured way to avoid triggering legal control thresholds. The bank is the nation’s 26^th smallest and, after this generous investment, it deposits went up about 600 percent from its initial $10 million level via four new accounts. Sill more intriguingly, Farmington’s crypto ties via shadow owners appear to go back to …

31 10, 2022

FedFin on: “Surprise” Fee Restrictions

Arezou Rafikian2022-11-01T16:55:42-04:00October 31st, 2022|The Vault|

In conjunction with a Presidential speech and new White House initiative against “junk fees,” the CFPB has accelerated its own efforts in this arena with two new policy directives. As with many other recent Bureau actions, the new circular and bulletin do not take the form of notice-and-comment rulemakings, but rather are directives with express enforcement implications unless or until the courts overturn them, the General Accounting Office intervenes to bar guidance outside the rulemaking process as it did years ago related to inter-agency leveraged-loan standards, or new law reconfigures the agency. The most immediate implication of these edicts is a ban on blanket rejected deposit fees and further constraints on overdraft fees.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

26 09, 2022

Karen Petrou: Nonbanks Win Big

Arezou Rafikian2022-09-27T10:49:12-04:00September 26th, 2022|The Vault|

As our in-depth reports detailed, Treasury took the President’s policy edicts to heart when crafting a new digital-finance policy for the U.S. Treasury could have ducked some hard decisions via laudatory rhetoric, but it chose instead to recommend specific policies that cut a new path to a U.S. CBDC and crypto regulation. Our reports detail key policy decisions and what’s soon to be done with them, but one warrants even more immediate attention: Treasury’s decision to adhere not just to the President’s executive order on crypto-finance, but also to another on increasing financial sector competition. This puts banks on notice that not all have yet taken.

Overlooked in much analysis of Treasury’s sweeping reports is its call to break up what Treasury clearly sees as the monopoly banks have long enjoyed over payment-system access. Treasury for example argues that many banks have exited retail remittances even though these are critical to financial inclusion and leaves the market ill-served. Indeed, it wants nonbanks to obtain overall instant-payment access, saying:

Network effects support the adoption of instant payment systems: Widespread use makes it more likely that a payor can use an instant payment system to make a payment to a payee, increasing the system’s value. … Broadening the range of financial institutions that are eligible to participate in instant payment systems, as certain foreign jurisdictions have done, could help to enhance speed and efficiency, competition, and inclusion in payments, including for cross-border payments.

The problem with Treasury’s call for payment-system …

18 08, 2022

FedFin on: Payment System Access

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-04T11:31:21-05:00August 18th, 2022|The Vault|

Following considerable controversy surrounding how Federal Reserve Banks grant master accounts, it has finalized a somewhat more explicit set of guidelines along lines proposed the second time the Fed attempted to set guidelines via a “supplemental” proposal earlier this year amending its 2021 effort.3 Doubtless expecting the controversy which followed these final guidelines, the Fed was at pains in both the preamble and release to emphasize that the new standards are “transparent and equitable.” However, as noted below, some changes to the supplemental in fact increase…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

14 06, 2022

FedFin On: U.S. Digital-Asset Framework

Arezou Rafikian2023-01-27T15:30:30-05:00June 14th, 2022|The Vault|

After protracted negotiations and much public attention, bipartisan senators have introduced a far-reaching bill designed to encourage digital-asset use without undue risk to consumers, investors, or the financial system. The bill decides most, if not all, of the outstanding regulatory barriers to digital-asset use in favor of digital assets and their providers. Provisions in many cases go farther than public discussion has so far noted – for example, the measure not only expands the ability of digital-asset providers to reach retail and wholesale customers, but also gives them access to FDIC resolution without the cost of paying insurance premiums or coming under many of the rules that govern insured depositories…

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here and here.…

15 04, 2022

FedFin: BIS Finds Ways to Give Nonbanks Payment-System Access, Increase CBDC’s Inclusion Impact

Arezou Rafikian2023-03-02T10:53:48-05:00April 15th, 2022|Uncategorized|

As promised, we turn here to an in-depth analysis of a paper from global regulators on whether CBDC contributes to financial inclusion – one of the most vital arguments from those advocating CBDC in the U.S. and in many other nations. The paper is not analytical, as it is based on interviews with nine central banks exploring retail CBDC, but all of those interviewed view CBDC as an effective tool to promote inclusion if designed to do so and the paper also surveys research to back up its findings. It details numerous ways CBDC could prove inclusive, including a first-time assessment of how making certain CBDC aspects programmable and how regtech could permit nonbanks to enter the CBDC payment system without undue risk…

The full report is available to subscription clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

9 03, 2022

FedFin Analysis: Payment-System Access

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-04T10:54:03-04:00March 9th, 2022|The Vault|

Following considerable controversy surrounding how Federal Reserve Banks grant master accounts, the FRB has proposed a somewhat more explicit set of guidelines than provided in its initial notice seeking views on expanding payment-system access. The first proposal laid out the Fed’s policy goals for granting access but said only that insured depositories would get the most straightforward review and other institutions would be subject to more detailed scrutiny. The Fed has now reissued that proposal and differentiated applicants into three classes, getting the lightest to the strictest review…..

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

7 03, 2022

Karen Petrou: Why Armies Now March on Their Wallets

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-04T12:29:27-04:00March 7th, 2022|The Vault|

Napoleon famously said that armies march on their stomachs. Now, it’s clear that armies also march on their wallets.

The dollar’s blitzkrieg triumph isn’t due to any love of the greenback — even America’s closest allies have long hoped to counterbalance US. economic dominance with rival payment systems able to operate unscathed regardless of U.S. sanctions. However, the EU, U.K., and Japan have never gotten much past dreaming about payment-system challenges because the embedded dollar-based system has become essentially friction- and risk-free. That’s hard to beat.

China might still have a shot at a yuan-based substitute, but it would have to ensure liquidity (essentially impossible when a currency isn’t freely convertible) as well as political neutrality. China’s decision suddenly to mount de facto nationalization of what was once a thriving, privately-owned digital-commerce sector will at the least give pause to those whose funds would move through a Chinese-dominated system.

Any nation that wants to replace the dollar also has to have sovereign obligations readily understood to be a safe haven under acute stress that are issued in amounts sufficient to absorb extreme shock. China and the EU has no single issuer of sovereign bonds in quantity and quality sufficient to substitute for Treasury obligations. Most market participants think China is more likely to be the cause of a shock than ever to serve as a shock absorber, ruling out its sovereign debt even if it grows large enough to mount a challenge to the U.S. Treasury.

And, finally, there’s the …

1 02, 2022

FedFin: “Fair-Fee” Policy

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-05T14:22:57-04:00February 1st, 2022|The Vault|

Taking action to advance President Biden’s competition order, 1 the CFPB is seeking views on fees which it believes exploit consumers by virtue of unfair competition. Although many of the fees it cites are covered by statutory
disclosure regimes designed to ensure both front- and back-end fee transparency, the Bureau believes that many of these fees are unfair due to large-bank market power.

The full report is available to retainer clients. To find out how you can sign up for the service, click here.…

31 01, 2022

Karen Petrou: CBDC’s Big Empty

Arezou Rafikian2023-04-05T16:20:36-04:00January 31st, 2022|The Vault|

Anyone looking for even a scintilla of a clue buried in a hint of an intention in the Fed’s CBDC discussion draft hunted in vain for guidance on the most consequential strategic inflection point for the U.S. financial-services industry, the financial system, the global payment system, and even the future of money. Once, we all would have had to wait for augers from the on-high Fed to see the fate the imperium decreed. Now, the Fed still thinks it rules all it surveys even though it doesn’t. Soon, it may find out the hard way that fast-moving companies crafting digital money care as little for the central bank’s wishes as they did for those of the media, hotel, and retailing magnates they have already supplanted.

This is not to say that we must necessarily have a central-bank digital currency. As I noted in my book, a democracy must ensure privacy and competition in ways China, for one example, disregards. Rather, it’s to say that the U.S. will not have a secure store of value or sound medium of exchange without a payment system on which the economy stands firm. Payment-system finality, accessibility, ubiquity, and cyber-security are all at risk if the Fed cedes the CBDC field without first and fast establishing the new framework it knows we need.

Nor am I saying that CBDC is inevitable because stablecoins are a certainty. Libra’s ignominious demise is ample evidence of the power regulators still have to set the terms of payment …